In re: Jat support for the BJP in Western Uttar Pradesh 

The BJP has a more committed core Jat vote bank in Western Uttar Pradesh than in Haryana. There are two simple reasons for this:

1.     Haryana doesn't have a significant presence of Muslims in its politics - they are concentrated in Mewat with some presence in Yamunanagar & pockets elsewhere. So polarization is difficult. This is different from Western UP where Muslims are in significant numbers.

2.     While Jats believe that Chief Minister's post is rightfully theirs in Haryana, such a sentiment doesn't exist in Uttar Pradesh. They tend to be aware of the fact that Lucknow is far away, their numbers are fewer & that Ch. Charan Singh was a leader beyond caste - didn't get to Lucknow because he was a Jat.

 

In re: Punjab Elections 2022

The AAP is set to sweep #Punjab as per many assessments. I do not completely buy into that & would lean towards the view that there will be a hung assembly. That said, if the AAP comes to power actual governance will become very difficult for them.

The reason is not remote controlling from Delhi. Rather it is that the AAP in Punjab is a coalition of urban Hindus & rural Jat Sikhs. The Hindu element includes people with both RSS as well as traditional Congress leanings.

The Jat Sikh element includes large sections which have a very different approach to the idea of India & even the idea of Punjab than the Hindu element - both RSS & non RSS have. Failing to balance these interests could lead to a bad outcome for the state & India generally.