Why the BJP & Yogi Adityanath win in #UttarPradesh:

I am not from Uttar Pradesh or North India but I have lived in #Delhi continuously since 2005. I have been visiting Uttar Pradesh proper [beyond NCR] regularly since 2007 for work – more than I have visited any other state. Apart from that I am have been inextricably linked to the state via my personal life since 2015. It follows that I keep going to Uttar Pradesh proper.

Now I am not a partisan person – it is true that I never vote for the BJP but that has less to do with ideology or mindset & more to do with practical thinking – that is, their approach to minorities is dangerous in the long run and shall ultimately harm us all thanks to socio economic strife & possible violence.

It is easy to suggest that the BJP wins state & local polls in Uttar Pradesh only on account of majority-minority issues. Indeed majority-minority issues are a part of the BJP’s core message and a major part of its pitch to voters. However there is more:

• In my interactions with poorer Hindu in UP – chauffeurs, waiters & other poorer people, I find that a prime motivation is anti Muslim sentiment in varying degrees. Freebies only add to the BJP’s attractiveness but they would have gone with that party even without them.

• Middle class Hindus again have similar feelings of negativity – however they are not so pronounced. Their motivation to a large extent is law & order – of course the tough on law & order bulldozer driven policies disproportionately impact Muslims, who many if not most Hindus do not like in varying degrees – but it is NOT entirely directed to Muslims. There has been a general improvement in law and order by UP standards.

• More well off Hindus may or may not like Muslims even though they often work with them. However anti Muslim sentiment is NOT a driving factor for them in every election or in all cases. The main factors appear to be law & order with the above qualifications as well as greater ease of doing business – centralized & regulated corruption similar to but more sophisticated than what existed during the BSP’s 2007-2012 tenure. You have to pay less people and there are fewer people in and outside government to harass you and make it difficult to work.

Conclusion: Generally the BJP wins because of majority-minority, law & order beyond just communal aspects, micro level welfare – handouts & a generally easier environment for work.